AMC10 2025 A
AMC10 2025 A · Q16
AMC10 2025 A · Q16. It mainly tests Basic counting (rules of product/sum), Expected value (basic).
There are three jars. Each of three coins is placed in one of the three jars, chosen at random and independently of the placement of the other coins. What is the expected number of coins in a jar with the most coins?
有三个罐子。每个三个硬币被随机且独立地放入三个罐子之一。罐子中硬币最多的那个罐子中的硬币数的期望值是多少?
(A)
\frac{4}{3}
\frac{4}{3}
(B)
\frac{13}{9}
\frac{13}{9}
(C)
\frac{5}{8}
\frac{5}{8}
(D)
\frac{17}{9}
\frac{17}{9}
(E)
2
2
Answer
Correct choice: (D)
正确答案:(D)
Solution
We have three coins and three jars. Each coin is placed independently and randomly into one of the jars. Let $M$ be the maximum number of coins in any jar. We want to compute the expected value of $M$.
Step 1: Count total outcomes
Each coin has $3$ choices, so the total number of equally likely placements is $3^3 = 27$.
Step 2: Casework on the maximum number of coins
Case 1: $M = 1$. This occurs when each jar has exactly one coin. There are $3! = 6$ assignments of coins to jars. Hence, $\Pr(M=1) = \frac{6}{27} = \frac{2}{9}$.
Case 2: $M = 3$. This occurs when all three coins fall into the same jar. There are $3$ jars to choose from, so $\Pr(M=3) = \frac{3}{27} = \frac{1}{9}$.
Case 3: $M = 2$. This occurs when one jar has $2$ coins, another jar has $1$ coin, and the last jar has $0$ coins.
We can choose which jar gets $2$ coins in $3$ ways, which jar gets $1$ coin in $2$ ways, and which $2$ coins out of the $3$ go into the jar with two coins, so we multiply by $\dbinom{3}{2}$, which is just $3$ (note we don't have to do this for the earlier cases because for case $2$, all $3$ coins go into one jar, and for case $1$, the factorial already accounts for that). Therefore, there are $3^2 \cdot 2 = 18$ outcomes. Thus, $\Pr(M=2) = \frac{18}{27} = \frac{2}{3}$.
Step 3: Compute the expected value The expected value of $M$ is $\mathbb{E}[M] = 1 \cdot \frac{2}{9} + 2 \cdot \frac{2}{3} + 3 \cdot \frac{1}{9}$.
Converting everything to ninths, we have $\mathbb{E}[M] = \frac{2}{9} + \frac{12}{9} + \frac{3}{9} = \frac{17}{9}$.
Hence, the expected number of coins in the jar with the most coins is$\boxed{\text{(D) }\frac{17}{9}}$
.
$Pr$=Probability of
$\mathbb{E}$=Expected value
As described in the solution, there are $3^3=27$ ways of distributing the coins into the $3$ jars. Because there are $6$ ways for M=1 and $3$ ways for M=3, there are $27 - 6 - 3 = 18$ ways for $M=2$.
我们有三个硬币和三个罐子。每个硬币独立随机放入一个罐子。设 $M$ 为任意罐子中硬币数的最大值。我们要计算 $M$ 的期望值。
步骤1:计算总情况数
每个硬币有 $3$ 个选择,因此总等可能放置方式数为 $3^3 = 27$。
步骤2:按最大硬币数分类讨论
情况1:$M = 1$。这发生在每个罐子恰好有一个硬币时。有 $3! = 6$ 种硬币分配方式。因此,$\Pr(M=1) = \frac{6}{27} = \frac{2}{9}$。
情况2:$M = 3$。这发生在所有三个硬币放入同一个罐子时。有 $3$ 个罐子可选,因此 $\Pr(M=3) = \frac{3}{27} = \frac{1}{9}$。
情况3:$M = 2$。这发生在一个罐子有 $2$ 个硬币,另一个罐子有 $1$ 个硬币,最后一个罐子有 $0$ 个硬币。
可以选择哪个罐子得 $2$ 个硬币有 $3$ 种方式,选择哪个罐子得 $1$ 个硬币有 $2$ 种方式,从 $3$ 个硬币中选 $2$ 个放入双硬币罐子,$\dbinom{3}{2}=3$(注意前面的情况不需要这样,因为情况2所有 $3$ 个硬币放入一个罐子,情况1的阶乘已包含)。因此,有 $3^2 \cdot 2 = 18$ 种情况。这样,$\Pr(M=2) = \frac{18}{27} = \frac{2}{3}$。
步骤3:计算期望值 $M$ 的期望值为 $\mathbb{E}[M] = 1 \cdot \frac{2}{9} + 2 \cdot \frac{2}{3} + 3 \cdot \frac{1}{9}$。
转换为九分之一,$\mathbb{E}[M] = \frac{2}{9} + \frac{12}{9} + \frac{3}{9} = \frac{17}{9}$。
因此,硬币最多的罐子中硬币数的期望值为 $\boxed{\text{(D) }\frac{17}{9}}$。
如解法所述,有 $3^3=27$ 种将硬币分配到 $3$ 个罐子的方式。因为 $M=1$ 有 $6$ 种方式,$M=3$ 有 $3$ 种方式,因此 $M=2$ 有 $27 - 6 - 3 = 18$ 种方式。
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