Pablo will decorate each of $6$ identical white balls with either a striped or a dotted pattern, using either red or blue paint. He will decide on the color and pattern for each ball by flipping a fair coin for each of the $12$ decisions he must make. After the paint dries, he will place the $6$ balls in an urn. Frida will randomly select one ball from the urn and note its color and pattern. The events "the ball Frida selects is red" and "the ball Frida selects is striped" may or may not be independent, depending on the outcome of Pablo's coin flips. The probability that these two events are independent can be written as $\frac mn,$ where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers. What is $m?$ (Recall that two events $A$ and $B$ are independent if $P(A \text{ and }B)$ = $P(A)$ $P(B)$
Pablo将用条纹或点状图案,用红色或蓝色颜料装饰6个相同的白球。他通过为每个球的12个决定各抛一次公平硬币来决定颜色和图案。颜料干后,他将6个球放入一个瓮中。Frida将随机从瓮中选出一个球并记下其颜色和图案。事件“Frida选出的球是红色的”和“Frida选出的球是条纹的”可能独立也可能不独立,取决于Pablo抛硬币的结果。这两个事件独立的概率可以写成$\frac mn$,其中$m$和$n$互质正整数。$m$是多少?(回忆两个事件$A$和$B$独立当且仅当$P(A \text{ and }B)$ = $P(A)$ $P(B)$
Let $a$ be the number of balls that are both striped and red, $x$ be the number of balls that are striped but blue, and $y$ be the number of balls that are red but dotted. Then there must be $6-a-x-y$ balls that are dotted and blue.
Let $A$ be the event, "the ball Frida selects is red", and $B$ be the event, "the ball Frida selects is striped". $A$ and $B$ are independent if and only if $\frac{a}{6}=\frac{a+x}{6}\cdot\frac{a+y}{6}$, i.e.,
\[6a=(a+x)(a+y)\]
Before we continue, I'd like to clarify that the sample space $S$, under which we are computing probability that $A$ and $B$ are independent, consists of $4^6$ total outcomes, each equally likely. Notice that once given $a, x, y$, there are ${6\choose a}{6-a \choose x}{6-a-x \choose y}=\frac{6!}{a!x!y!(6-a-x-y)!}$ corresponding outcomes.
Now, it remains to find all nonnegative integer solutions $(a, x, y)$ to the above equation such that $a+x+y<6$, add up all the corresponding outcomes, and then divide by $4^6$. We can find the solutions relatively easily by doing casework on $a=0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6$. Long story short, one finds the solutions to be
\[(0, 0, 0), (0, 0, 1)\cdots (0, 0, 6)\]
\[(0, 1, 0), (0, 2, 0)\cdots (0, 6, 0)\]
\[(1, 5, 0), (1, 0, 5), (1, 2, 1), (1, 1, 2)\]
\[(2, 4, 0), (2, 0, 4) (2, 2, 1), (2, 1, 2)\]
\[(3, 3, 0), (3, 0, 3)\]
\[(4, 2, 0), (4, 0, 2)\]
\[(5, 1, 0), (5, 0, 1)\]
\[(6, 0, 0)\]
There are little tricks we can use to make the process of adding up the corresponding outcomes faster. First, we notice that the first, second, and last row of solutions contributes $2^7=128$ outcomes. Then we can take advantage of the symmetry between $x, y$ to add up the rest of the outcomes. In the end we get
\[128+2(6+180+15+180+20+15+6)=972\]
Hence, the probability is $\frac{972}{4^6}=\frac{243}{2^{10}}$. Therefore, the answer is $\boxed{\textbf{(A) } 243}$
设$a$为既条纹又红色的球数,$x$为条纹但蓝色的球数,$y$为红色但点状的球数。那么必须有$6-a-x-y$个点状且蓝色的球。
设$A$为事件“Frida选出的球是红色的”,$B$为事件“Frida选出的球是条纹的”。$A$和$B$独立当且仅当$\frac{a}{6}=\frac{a+x}{6}\cdot\frac{a+y}{6}$,即
\[6a=(a+x)(a+y)\]
在继续之前,我想澄清样本空间$S$,我们计算$A$和$B$独立的概率,由$4^6$个总结果组成,每个等可能。注意,一旦给出$a, x, y$,有${6\choose a}{6-a \choose x}{6-a-x \choose y}=\frac{6!}{a!x!y!(6-a-x-y)!}$个对应结果。
现在,剩下找到上述方程的所有非负整数解$(a, x, y)$,使得$a+x+y<6$,将所有对应结果相加,然后除以$4^6$。我们可以通过按$a=0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6$分类讨论相对容易地找到解。长话短说,发现解为
\[(0, 0, 0), (0, 0, 1)\cdots (0, 0, 6)\]
\[(0, 1, 0), (0, 2, 0)\cdots (0, 6, 0)\]
\[(1, 5, 0), (1, 0, 5), (1, 2, 1), (1, 1, 2)\]
\[(2, 4, 0), (2, 0, 4) (2, 2, 1), (2, 1, 2)\]
\[(3, 3, 0), (3, 0, 3)\]
\[(4, 2, 0), (4, 0, 2)\]
\[(5, 1, 0), (5, 0, 1)\]
\[(6, 0, 0)\]
我们可以使用一些小技巧来加快加总对应结果的过程。首先,我们注意到第一、第二和最后一行解贡献$2^7=128$个结果。然后我们可以利用$x, y$的对称性来加总其余结果。最终我们得到
\[128+2(6+180+15+180+20+15+6)=972\]
因此,概率是$\frac{972}{4^6}=\frac{243}{2^{10}}$。因此,答案是$\boxed{\textbf{(A) } 243}$