A frog sitting at the point $(1, 2)$ begins a sequence of jumps, where each jump is parallel to one of the coordinate axes and has length 1, and the direction of each jump (up, down, right, or left) is chosen independently at random. The sequence ends when the frog reaches a side of the square with vertices $(0, 0)$, $(0, 4)$, $(4, 4)$, and $(4, 0)$. What is the probability that the sequence of jumps ends on a vertical side of the square?
一只青蛙坐在点 $(1, 2)$ 开始一系列跳跃,每一次跳跃平行于坐标轴且长度为 1,每次跳跃的方向(上、下、右或左)独立随机选择。序列在青蛙到达顶点为 $(0, 0)$、$(0, 4)$、$(4, 4)$ 和 $(4, 0)$ 的正方形的一条边时结束。序列结束在正方形垂直边上的概率是多少?
After the first jump, the frog is at one of $(0,2)$, $(1,1)$, $(1,3)$, $(2,2)$, each with probability $\frac{1}{4}$. If at $(0,2)$, it ends on a vertical side. In the other cases, it is on a diagonal, so by symmetry, equally likely to end on horizontal or vertical side. Thus, $\frac{1}{4}\cdot1 + \frac{3}{4}\cdot\frac{1}{2}=\frac{5}{8}$.
第一次跳跃后,青蛙位于 $(0,2)$、$(1,1)$、$(1,3)$、$(2,2)$ 中的一个,每个概率 $\frac{1}{4}$。如果在 $(0,2)$,则结束在垂直边上。在其他情况下,它在对角线上,因此由对称性,结束在水平边或垂直边的概率相等。因此,$\frac{1}{4}\cdot1 + \frac{3}{4}\cdot\frac{1}{2}=\frac{5}{8}$。