Tina randomly selects two distinct numbers from the set $\{1,2,3,4,5\}$, and Sergio randomly selects a number from the set $\{1,2,\ldots,10\}$. What is the probability that Sergio's number is larger than the sum of the two numbers chosen by Tina?
蒂娜从集合 $\{1,2,3,4,5\}$ 中随机选取两个不同的数,塞尔吉奥从集合 $\{1,2,\ldots,10\}$ 中随机选取一个数。求塞尔吉奥选到的数大于蒂娜所选两个数之和的概率。
We have 4 cases, if Tina chooses $1, 2, 3,$ or $4$ and always chooses numbers greater than the first number she chose.
The number of ways of choosing 2 numbers from $5$ are $\binom{5}{2}$.
Case 1: Tina chooses $1$.
In this case, since the numbers are distinct, Tina can choose $(1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4),$ or $(1, 5).$
If Tina chooses $1$ and $2$ which sum to $3$, Sergio only has $10-3=7$ choices.
Since the sum of the combined numbers increases by $1$ every time for this specific case, Sergio has $1$ less choice every time.
Therefore, the probability of this is $\frac{7+6+5+4}{10 \cdot \binom{5}{2}}$.
Case 2: Tina chooses $2$.
In this case, Tina can choose $(2, 3), (2, 4),$ or $(2, 5).$
If Tina chooses $2$ and $3$ which sum to $5$, Sergio only has $10-5=5$ choices.
Since the sum of the combined numbers increases by $1$ every time for this specific case, Sergio has $1$ less choice every time.
Therefore, the probability of this is $\frac{5+4+3}{10 \cdot \binom{5}{2}}$.
Case 3: Tina chooses $3$.
In this case, Tina can choose $(3, 4),$ or $(3, 5).$
If Tina chooses $3$ and $4$ which sum to $7$, Sergio only has $10-7=3$ choices.
Since the sum of the combined numbers increases by $1$ every time for this specific case, Sergio has $1$ less choice every time.
Therefore, the probability of this is $\frac{3+2}{10 \cdot \binom{5}{2}}$.
Case 4: Tina chooses $4$.
In this case, Tina can only choose $(4,5).$
If Tina chooses $4$ and $5$ which sum to $9$, Sergio only has $10-9=1$ choice.
Therefore, the probability of this is $\frac{1}{10 \cdot \binom{5}{2}}$.
Once you add these probabilities up, you will have $\frac{(7+6+5+4)+(5+4+3)+(3+2)+(1)}{10 \cdot\binom{5}{2}} = \frac{40}{100} = \frac{2}{5}$ probability.
Thus our answer is $\frac{2}{5}$.
Assume Sergio chooses from ${2,3,\ldots,10}$. The probability of Tina getting a sum of $6+x$ and a sum of $6-x$, where $x \leq 4$, are equal due to symmetry. The probability of Sergio choosing numbers higher/lower than $6+x$ is equal to him choosing numbers lower/higher than $6-x$. Therefore over all of Tina's sums, the probability of Sergio choosing a number higher is equal to the probability of choosing a number lower.
我们分 4 种情况讨论:Tina 先选 $1, 2, 3,$ 或 $4$,并且总是选取比第一个数更大的另一个数。
从 $5$ 个数中选 2 个的方式数为 $\binom{5}{2}$。
情况 1:Tina 选 $1$。
由于数字互不相同,Tina 可以选 $(1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4),$ 或 $(1, 5)$。
若 Tina 选 $1$ 和 $2$,和为 $3$,则 Sergio 只有 $10-3=7$ 种选择。
在该情况下,每当 Tina 的两数之和增加 $1$,Sergio 的可选数就减少 $1$。
因此该情况的概率为 $\frac{7+6+5+4}{10 \cdot \binom{5}{2}}$。
情况 2:Tina 选 $2$。
Tina 可以选 $(2, 3), (2, 4),$ 或 $(2, 5)$。
若 Tina 选 $2$ 和 $3$,和为 $5$,则 Sergio 只有 $10-5=5$ 种选择。
同理,每当和增加 $1$,Sergio 的可选数减少 $1$。
因此该情况的概率为 $\frac{5+4+3}{10 \cdot \binom{5}{2}}$。
情况 3:Tina 选 $3$。
Tina 可以选 $(3, 4),$ 或 $(3, 5)$。
若 Tina 选 $3$ 和 $4$,和为 $7$,则 Sergio 只有 $10-7=3$ 种选择。
同理,每当和增加 $1$,Sergio 的可选数减少 $1$。
因此该情况的概率为 $\frac{3+2}{10 \cdot \binom{5}{2}}$。
情况 4:Tina 选 $4$。
Tina 只能选 $(4,5)$。
若 Tina 选 $4$ 和 $5$,和为 $9$,则 Sergio 只有 $10-9=1$ 种选择。
因此该情况的概率为 $\frac{1}{10 \cdot \binom{5}{2}}$。
将这些概率相加,得到
\[\frac{(7+6+5+4)+(5+4+3)+(3+2)+(1)}{10 \cdot\binom{5}{2}} = \frac{40}{100} = \frac{2}{5}\]
因此答案是 $\frac{2}{5}$。
也可以假设 Sergio 从 ${2,3,\ldots,10}$ 中选择。由于对称性,Tina 得到和为 $6+x$ 与和为 $6-x$(其中 $x \leq 4$)的概率相等。Sergio 选到大于/小于 $6+x$ 的概率,分别等于他选到小于/大于 $6-x$ 的概率。因此在 Tina 的所有可能和上,Sergio 选到更大的概率等于选到更小的概率。