Suppose that one of every 500 people in a certain population has a particular disease, which displays no symptoms. A blood test is available for screening for this disease. For a person who has this disease, the test always turns out positive. For a person who does not have the disease, however, there is a 2% false positive rate—in other words, for such people, 98% of the time the test will turn out negative, but 2% of the time the test will turn out positive and will incorrectly indicate that the person has the disease. Let p be the probability that a person who is chosen at random from this population and gets a positive test result actually has the disease. Which of the following is closest to p ?
假设某人群中每500人中有一人患有某种无症状疾病。有一种血液检测可用于筛查该疾病。对于患病者,检测总是阳性。对于未患病者,假阳性率为2%——即98%情况下检测阴性,2%情况下检测阳性,错误指示患病。设p为从该人群随机选中一人并检测阳性后实际患病的概率。下列哪项最接近p?